No clue? Somewhere between a few years (assuming some unexpected breakthrough) or many decades? The consensus from experts (of which I am not) seems to be somewhere in the 2030s/40s for AGI. I’m guessing accuracy probably will be more on a topic by topic basis, LLMs might never even get there, or only related to things they’ve been heavily trained on. If predictive text doesn’t do it then I would be betting on whatever Yann LeCun is working on.
Perhaps there is some line between assuming infinite growth and declaring that this technology that is not quite good enough right now will therefore never be good enough?
Blindly assuming no further technological advancements seems equally as foolish to me as assuming perpetual exponential growth. Ironically, our ability to extrapolate from limited information is a huge part of human intelligence that AI hasn’t solved yet.
GPT-2 came out a little more than 5 years ago, it answered 0% of questions accurately and couldn’t string a sentence together.
GPT-3 came out a little less than 4 years ago and was kind of a neat party trick, but I’m pretty sure answered ~0% of programming questions correctly.
GPT-4 came out a little less than 2 years ago and can answer 48% of programming questions accurately.
I’m not talking about mortality, or creativity, or good/bad for humanity, but if you don’t see a trajectory here, I don’t know what to tell you.
This is very much the type of case that settles out of court for an undisclosed amount of money.
The company is offering affected users a 30 percent discount on a new Ecobee thermostat, valid for up to 15 thermostats.
…
whatever the hell ‘X’ is supposed to be
It’s the social media company he founded, obviously.
Or, if you’re trying to make it more directly comparable to 17 million (because humans aren’t great at implicitly comparing that many zeros), that would be 56,000 millions. It’s not how we normally say it, but 17 vs 56,000 feels different than 17 million vs 56 billion.
Which is why AI should tell end users “I don’t know” more often.
If you feel this is a simple solution, I strongly suggest you write up exactly how you do this and make yourself a billion dollars.
“Just walk in with a big briefcase full of cash and sign some papers, what’s so complicated?”
I’d say more than that. I don’t think anyone is that close to AGI…yet
A calculator does most of it too, but this is a LLM that can do lots of other things also, which is a big piece of the “general” part of AGI.
Richard Feynman said “You have to keep a dozen of your favorite problems constantly present in your mind, although by and large they will lay in a dormant state. Every time you hear or read a new trick or a new result, test it against each of your twelve problems to see whether it helps. Every once in a while there will be a hit, and people will say, “How did he do it? He must be a genius!”
We are close to a point where a computer that can hold all the problems in its “head” can test all of them against all of the tricks. I don’t know what math problems that starts to solve but I bet a few of them would be applicable to cryptology.
But then again, I have no idea what I’m talking about and just making bold guesses based on close to no information.
If ‘anybody’ does anything similar to tracing, copy&pasting or even sampling a fraction of another person’s imagery or written work, that anybody is violating copyright.
Ok, but tracing is literally a part of the human learning process. If you trace a work and sell it as your own that’s bad. If you trace a work to learn about the style and let that influence your future works that is what every artist already does.
The artistic process isn’t copyrighted, only the final result. The exact same standards can apply to AI generated work as already do to anything human generated.
I take it we don’t use the phrase “good writers borrow, great writers steal” in this day and age…
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It kinda makes sense. All the people who know better already use an ad blocker so they don’t know what it’s really like and all the people who don’t know to use an ad blocker don’t know any better and that’s just what the internet looks like.
I keep forgetting that that’s an option